Global strategists at Goldman Sachs advise investors to look beyond the over the next decade. Peter Oppenheimer and his team forecast that the S&P 500 will return about 6.5% annually over the next ten years, one of the weakest projections among major regions.
On the other hand, emerging markets are expected to deliver annual returns near 10.9%, supported by strong earnings growth in China and India. Asia excluding Japan is projected to return roughly 10.3%, while Japan itself could see gains of 8.2%. The strategists argue that lofty US valuations and a convergence in earnings growth make international diversification crucial.
US stocks have lagged global peers this year, with the MSCI All‑Country World Index excluding the United States rising far more than the S&P 500. Analysts caution that factors that lifted US equities in the past, such as tax cuts, high margins, and low interest rates, are less likely to support returns in the future.