Gold miners are on track to deliver stellar third-quarter earnings, fueled by a record rally in bullion prices, with investors watching for updates on the recent CEO changes at top producers Newmont and Barrick.
Analysts expect the two miners to post a combined profit of nearly US$3 billion for the period, more than double last year’s $1.4 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Prices averaged $3,574.95 per ounce in the July–September quarter, up 43.5 per cent year-on-year.
Bullion prices surged past $4,000 per ounce for the first time ever this month, with some analysts now forecasting a run to the $5,000 mark next year.
Precious metal miners are also benefiting from stable production, and contained cost pressures, Stifel analysts said, flagging rising contractor fees, royalties and taxes linked to gold prices as potential challenges.
Investors set for bonanza
Higher profits are also encouraging miners to ramp up shareholder returns. Top miner Newmont returned $1 billion last quarter and approved a $3 billion share buyback plan.
A Newmont spokesperson said the company is well-positioned to deliver strong returns to shareholders through a predictable common dividend and active share repurchase program.
Barrick paid a dividend of 15 cents a share, including a performance payout, and returned $753 million in the first-half of 2025.
“We forecast a majority of producers will be in a net cash position as of third quarter. Buyback activity across large-cap producers should continue in Q3, where commentary on this going forward will be of note, given recent share price gains,” said RBC Capital Markets analysts.
Shares of Newmont have surged 132 per cent this year, while Barrick is up 98 per cent for the same period.
Newmont is set to report results on Thursday, followed by Agnico on Oct. 29, Kinross on Nov. 4, and Barrick on November 10.
Leadership in focus
Barrick and Newmont last month unveiled CEO transitions on the same day, but it was Barrick’s announcement that reverberated across the industry.
Barrick’s Mark Bristow made a surprise exit despite earlier pledges to stay on, raising questions about its strategic direction, especially after a $1 billion write-off tied to its Mali mine.
The incoming CEO could reshape Barrick’s approach to key assets like Reko Diq, Citi analysts said.
Analysts view the miner more favorably due to growing confidence in its Fourmile project in Nevada.
In contrast, Newmont’s appointment of Natascha Viljoen, its first female CEO, was seen by analysts as well-flagged.
(Reporting by Sumit Saha and Pranav Mathur in Bengaluru; editing by Arpan Varghese and Sriraj Kalluvila)