Buy Coca-Cola Stock Ahead of Its Earnings?

Coca-Cola cans are seen in a store in Poland on July 18, 2025. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) is expected to release its earnings on Tuesday, October 21, 2025. Analyzing data from the past five years, Coca-Cola stock has shown a pattern of positive one-day returns following earnings announcements, occurring 67% of the time. The median positive return noted was 1.3%, with a maximum one-day positive return of 4.7%.

For traders who focus on events, while the actual results against consensus and expectations are essential, recognizing these historical trends can provide a strategic edge. There are two main strategies to take into account:

• Pre-earnings positioning: Assess the historical probabilities and establish a position prior to the earnings announcement.
• Post-earnings positioning: Analyze the relationship between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings release to inform your trading choices.

Analysts anticipate Coca-Cola to report earnings of $0.78 per share with sales reaching $12.41 billion. This compares to last year’s quarter’s earnings of $0.77 per share on sales of $11.95 billion.

From a fundamental viewpoint, the company currently has a market capitalization of $291 billion. Over the past twelve months, Coca-Cola generated $47 billion in revenue, reporting $14 billion in operating profits and a net income of $12 billion.

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See the earnings reaction history of all stocks

Coca-Cola’s Historical Chances of Positive Post-Earnings Return

Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:

1. Over the last five years, there have been 18 earnings data points recorded, with 12 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns occurred approximately 67% of the time.
2. However, this percentage drops to 55% if we analyze data from the last 3 years instead of 5.
3. The median of the 12 positive returns is 1.3%, while the median of the 6 negative returns is -0.6%.

Additional information on observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns following earnings is summarized along with the statistics in the table below.

Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns

A relatively lower-risk strategy (though not effective if the correlation is weak) is to identify the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns after earnings, find a pair with the highest correlation, and execute the corresponding trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on both a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D indicates the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.

Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?

Sometimes, the performance of peers can affect post-earnings stock reactions. Indeed, the pricing-in may start prior to the earnings announcements. Below is some historical data on Coca-Cola stock’s past post-earnings performance in relation to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Coca-Cola. For a fair comparison, peer stock returns also depict post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.

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