Consider, for a moment, what life was like in the early 2000s, before Uber (UBER 1.23%) and other ride-hailing apps were available. In that app-less world, getting a ride that wasn’t your friend, family member, or spouse meant hailing a taxi from a curb (or calling in advance), taking public transit, or navigating on your own feet. It wasn’t frictionless, nor always cheap, and because many cities regulate the number of taxis on the road, you could have been stuck waiting an hour during peak times.
When Uber came on the scene, people were primed for something new. The same argument, in a different context, can be made for Joby Aviation (JOBY +3.28%).
Joby wants to solve a commuter’s thorniest problem: traffic. And it wants to do it with a flying taxi, or what’s called an electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) craft.
If Joby succeeds, it could control a hefty portion of an urban mobility market estimated to be worth $9 trillion by 2050. With Joby stock down about 30% in 2026, is now the right time to buy this potential Uber of the skies before it takes off?
Closer to takeoff, not yet close enough to coast
Imagine a big drone that you and a few of your friends can sit in, that takes off from the ground and flies over gridlocked traffic and congested streets. That’s the world Joby wants you to live in, a world in which air travel becomes a fast route between airports and cities.
To get there, Joby Aviation needs a commercial license to put paying passengers in the air. In that regard, it is making progress. In March, it began flight testing its first FAA-conforming aircraft, and it expects pilots to start “for credit” testing later in 2026. Both are important steps on the path to type certification, a certification Joby needs to put paying passengers in the air.
Joby is also part of a White House program aimed at accelerating commercial operations for eVTOL makers. Most significantly, the program, of which rival Archer Aviation (ACHR +5.88%) is also a part, could help Joby kick-start early operations in U.S. cities later in 2026.
Even though Joby isn’t flying passengers in its eVTOLs, it is operating a helicopter service through its acquisition of Blade Air Mobility. These helicopters travel on routes that Joby would love to populate with air taxis — such as the route between Manhattan and JFK airport — which gives it experience (and data) before putting eVTOLs in the sky.
Image source: Joby Aviation.
Joby’s current share price of about $9 to $10 may seem cheap, but there’s more than meets the eye. The company carries a $9 billion market cap, which is uncomfortably high for a start-up that barely has any revenue to its name. Revenue is expected to grow over the next two years, but not enough to justify its current valuation.
Data by YCharts
As such, even at its current share price, Joby is still a speculative play on an industry that doesn’t exist yet. Most investors will probably want to hold off until the company at least gets regulatory approval to commercialize its air taxis.