Global market action
Spot gold fell 1% to $5,016.56 per ounce by 0055 GMT, paring gains from Monday (February 9) when prices jumped nearly 2% on a weaker dollar. The metal remains below its lifetime peak of $5,594.82 an ounce, hit on January 29.
US gold futures for April delivery declined 0.8% to $5,041.60 per ounce.
Silver saw sharper losses, dropping 2.5% to $81.31 per ounce after surging almost 7% an ounce in the previous session. The white metal had also touched a record $121.64 an ounce on January 29 before recent volatility.
The US dollar index gained 0.2% an ounce from a more than one-week low, making dollar-denominated metals costlier for overseas buyers. Meanwhile, global equities rose on Monday, led by US technology stocks, while the Japanese yen strengthened after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory.
Rates, jobs and what the Fed might do
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said US job gains could slow in coming months due to softer labour-force growth and higher productivity—an issue also under debate inside the Federal Reserve.
Markets currently expect at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first likely in June. Lower interest rates typically favour gold because bullion does not generate yield.
Investors are now focused on the January nonfarm payrolls report on Wednesday and US inflation data on Friday for clearer signals on monetary policy.
India’s gold ETF boom stands out
While global prices eased, demand trends in India told a different story.
According to the World Gold Council, India’s gold exchange-traded funds attracted a record $2.48 billion in net inflows in January 2026, nearly double December’s $1.25 billion and marking the eighth consecutive month of inflows. January’s intake alone accounted for 12.52% of total gold ETF assets under management in India.
‘Buy the dip or stay cautious?’ — What experts say
Rochan Pattnayak, Chief Investment Officer at Choice AMC, said the recent pullback in gold prices reflected profit-taking and shifting expectations around US rate cuts rather than a structural downturn.
He noted that gold had corrected roughly 2–8% from recent highs before stabilising, but argued that the broader backdrop—limited supply growth, geopolitical risks and steady central-bank buying—remains supportive.
“Investors should avoid knee-jerk reactions and maintain a calibrated allocation of around 10–15% of a diversified portfolio, depending on risk appetite,” Pattnayak said.
Key triggers to watch
According to Choice AMC, the near-term direction of gold will hinge on:
- ETF flows staying positive
- Real US rates declining or further rate cuts
- Geopolitical tensions remaining elevated
- Central bank purchases holding near 2025 levels
- Strong retail demand in India and China
- A weaker US dollar
- Muted recycling supply
Why inflows have surged
Pattnayak attributed last year’s and January’s inflows to a rare mix of factors: geopolitical stress, uncertain bond markets, declining real rates, and a structural shift in India and China from jewellery toward investment formats such as bars, coins and ETFs.
“India is gradually becoming a gold investment market, not just a jewellery market,” he said.