India is expected to record the largest incremental oil demand growth of any country by 2050, with consumption rising by 8.2 million barrels per day (mbpd), according to the OPEC World Oil Outlook presented by Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Studies Department at OPEC, during Indian Energy Week in Goa on Wednesday.
Presenting OPEC’s long-term assessment of global energy markets, Benyoucef said India would be the single biggest driver of global oil demand growth, reflecting its expanding population, rapid urbanisation and sustained economic momentum.
“India is set to be the largest contributor to global oil demand growth throughout the outlook period,” Benyoucef said. “Its demand increase alone accounts for more than eight million barrels per day by 2050.”
Road transportation will be the dominant driver of India’s oil demand growth, adding 4.6 mbpd by 2050, OPEC estimates. Diesel and gasoil are expected to account for the bulk of this increase, with demand rising from around 2 mbpd in 2024 to nearly 5 mbpd by mid-century.
Benyoucef pointed to the rapid expansion of India’s vehicle fleet as a key structural factor. “The exponential growth of India’s passenger car and commercial vehicle fleet is a major contributor to rising fuel demand,” he noted.
According to OPEC projections, India’s passenger car fleet will grow almost fivefold, from around 50 million vehicles in 2024 to more than 240 million by 2050, while commercial vehicles are expected to increase fourfold, significantly boosting diesel and gasoline consumption.
Beyond transport, the petrochemical sector is set to become an increasingly important pillar of India’s oil demand growth. OPEC estimates that naphtha demand, a critical petrochemical feedstock, will rise from 0.4 mbpd in 2024 to around 1 mbpd by 2050.
Demand for other refined products including bitumen, petroleum coke, lubricants and waxes is also expected to grow steadily, driven by infrastructure expansion, manufacturing growth and urban development.
“India’s oil demand growth will not be limited to transport alone. Petrochemicals and other refined products will play an increasingly important role as the economy diversifies and industrial activity expands,” Benyoucef said.
To support rising domestic consumption, India is expected to be a major contributor to global refining capacity additions, OPEC said.
Globally, refining capacity is projected to expand by 19.5 mbpd by 2050, with nearly 85per cent of additions coming before 2040, largely concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region. India alone could add around 3 mbpd of refining capacity, positioning it as one of the world’s most significant refining hubs.
Crude and condensate imports into the Asia-Pacific region, including India, are projected to rise from 24 mbpd today to 34 mbpd by 2050, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a destination market for global exporters, particularly from the Middle East.
Benyoucef cautioned that meeting India’s rising demand would require sustained investments across the entire oil value chain.
“Adequate and timely investments in upstream, midstream and downstream sectors are essential to ensure market stability and energy security as demand continues to grow,” he said.
OPEC’s outlook, he added, underlines the need for realistic energy pathways that balance emissions reduction goals with affordability, energy access and economic development particularly in fast-growing economies such as India.
