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UK house prices withstood market nervousness in the run-up to the Budget and pressures from high interest rates, gaining 0.3 per cent in November on the previous month.
The month-on-month rise took the average property cost to £272,998, according to data from lender Nationwide published on Tuesday.
Prices were up 1.8 per cent from November last year, an easing from the 2.4 per cent in the previous month.
Both figures were stronger than the 0.1 per cent monthly rise and 1.4 per cent annual increase forecast by economists polled by Reuters.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said the latest figures demonstrated “resilience” amid a backdrop of lower consumer sentiment and “signs of a weakening in the labour market”, noting that “mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid struck and house prices are close to all-time highs”.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves introduced a “mansion tax” surcharge on properties worth more than £2mn in the Budget, which will kick in from April 2028 and an increase in property income tax from April 2027.
The mansion tax surcharges “are unlikely to have a significant impact” on the housing market, according to Gardner, as the mansion tax will apply to less than 1 per cent of properties in England and about 3 per cent in London.
Instead, the increase in taxes on income from properties might damp the supply of new rental properties coming on to the market, he said, with the potential for this to “maintain upward pressure on rental growth”, which has been running at all-time highs in recent years.
Guy Gittins, chief executive of estate agency Foxtons, predicted stronger consumer sentiment after the Budget. “Confidence is expected to rebuild as more households feel ready to resume their moving plans over the coming months,” he said.
The gradual decline in mortgage rates is also expected to support demand in the property market, analysts argue. The Bank of England cut interest rates from a 16-year high of 5.25 per cent in 2024 to the current 4 per cent, with financial markets expecting a further reduction in borrowing costs at the next BoE meeting on December 18 and more cuts next year.
However, separate figures published by the Bank of England’s financial stability report on Tuesday showed that over the next three years, 43 per cent of mortgage accounts, or 3.9mn, were expected to refinance on to higher rates as the households refix their mortgage deals.
Interest rates were at an all-time low of 0.1 per cent in 2020 and 2021.